Bad neighbors? Niche overlap and asymmetric competition between native and Lessepsian limpets in the Eastern Mediterranean rocky intertidal.

The Eastern Mediterranean Sea hosts more non-indigenous species than any other marine region, yet their impacts on the native biota remain poorly understood. Focusing on mollusks from the Israeli rocky intertidal, we explored the hypothesis that this abiotically harsh habitat supports a limited trait diversity, and thus may promote niche overlap and competition between native and non-indigenous species. Indeed, native and non-indigenous assemblage components often had a highly similar trait composition, caused by functionally similar native (Patella caerulea) and non-indigenous (Cellana rota) limpets. Body size of P. caerulea decreased with increasing C. rota prevalence, but not vice versa, indicating potential asymmetric competition. Although both species have coexisted in Israel for >15 years, a rapid 'replacement' of native limpets by C. rota has been reported for a thermally polluted site, suggesting that competition and regionally rapid climate-related seawater warming might interact to progressively erode native limpet performance along the Israeli coast.

Native biodiversity collapse in the eastern Mediterranean.

Global warming causes the poleward shift of the trailing edges of marine ectotherm species distributions. In the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea, continental masses and oceanographic barriers do not allow natural connectivity with thermophilic species pools: as trailing edges retreat, a net diversity loss occurs. We quantify this loss on the Israeli shelf, among the warmest areas in the Mediterranean, by comparing current native molluscan richness with the historical one obtained from surficial death assemblages. We recorded only 12% and 5% of historically present native species on shallow subtidal soft and hard substrates, respectively. This is the largest climate-driven regional-scale diversity loss in the oceans documented to date. By contrast, assemblages in the intertidal, more tolerant to climatic extremes, and in the cooler mesophotic zone show approximately 50% of the historical native richness. Importantly, approximately 60% of the recorded shallow subtidal native species do not reach reproductive size, making the shallow shelf a demographic sink. We predict that, as climate warms, this native biodiversity collapse will intensify and expand geographically, counteracted only by Indo-Pacific species entering from the Suez Canal. These assemblages, shaped by climate warming and biological invasions, give rise to a 'novel ecosystem' whose restoration to historical baselines is not achievable.